I did not spin my result in yesterday’s blog. Those of you who know me might say I manipulated the answer because I like to be “right.” Well - you’re mistaken; I did not.Yesterday, I contended that the outcome doesn’t matter when evaluating decision-making processes. I maintain this position. The goal is to engage in better reflection, especially about our past decisions, so that we can do better in the future. If we remove the idea from our head that we were “right” or “wrong,” as it relates to our outcomes, we’ll see that improvement. Perhaps, your reflection will reveal flaws in your process. You’ll see confirmation bias at work, and in the future, you’ll need to be aware. Maybe you’ll realize that one data point didn’t matter, but another did. In life, once you have your “north” set, then your focus needs to be on the journey. If all you do is see “north,” but cannot see the road immediately in front of, on both sides of, or behind you, you’ll never orientate yourself to success. I’m not spinning when I say you were 30% right. I’m showing you a way to think about being 70% more right the next time around.

When reflecting on past decisions, do the outcomes matter? If every outcome has a probability of being a “win” or a “loss” for you, I’ll let you define what that means, then isn’t the process of how you came to win or lose more critical in determining future outcomes? The process is more important. Here’s why.Luck is outside of our control. So any intervening act outside of your control, which influences your outcome, cannot be factored into a reflection. Therefore, we may only consider what was within our control, the data we had, and what bets we made at the time we took a decision. If you consider the intended outcome when reviewing the data, your bias - and the bias of others reviewing the decision - will cause you to misinterpret the data against the final result. We don’t want this bias - it’s doesn’t help. If you gave yourself a 70% chance of achieving your outcome, and you did not, were you wrong? Or were you 30% right ;-)

There was an individual who worked with me. This individual spent years with the company, a strong leader, an individual I would often seek advice from because they saw what others didn’t. I’ll call this individual - Bob. Bob’s depth of experience enabled him to see things coming that could be disastrous. Perhaps we were trying something we’ve already done before, not changing the way we did it, and hoping for a different result? Bob could see that and often advised. Bob did have a problem. Bob had a reputation for being a talker and a nay-sayer. The leaders I reported to often discounted Bob’s advice. Their reasons? Bob “over-complicated” or “talked too much.” Bob knew this, and it frustrated Bob, it also frustrated me. When you shoot the messenger because you don’t like the messenger, you end up killing their message with it - don’t! The insights brought to bear may save a project, save time, heck - even save money! You could argue that Bob did have to own his reputation. Yes, he did. Bob had self-awareness. Bob worked on himself and made improvements. To this day, I’m proud of Bob. Without him, I wouldn’t have become a more well-rounded leader. He could put me in check, reshape my thoughts, and help me see what I couldn’t. Bob’s a good guy. For you, try not to shoot the Bobs. They can enrich your life, your skills, and your decision-making in ways you couldn’t understand. Instead, be generous, help the Bobs be better communicators. If you’re reading - Thank you, Bob ;-)

When you invite others to reflect on a past decision with you - share all of the details. Even the details you left out of your thinking, share them. If ever you had a doubt, share the doubts you had. Especially if you’re creating a decision-making tribe, the tribe owns the data - share it all. I encourage you to be transparent because the devil is in the details! The information we choose to accept because it confirms our bias, or ignore because it challenges our bias, drives a large part of our decision-making process. As a result, that information must be on the table for discussion when employing others to reflect with you. You’re going to find this to be a challenge. I do - every day! It requires vulnerability.Do you like to be wrong? No. Do you enjoy it when people illustrate how you missed something? Hardly ever, I’m sure. How do you see yourself when someone exposes your bias? Unsure, upset, unwilling to accept - all of the above? If you want to be a better decision-maker, share all of the data with your tribe. Let them press for more, and be willing to put all your cards on the table. Only then, after sharing it all, will you start to see growth within yourself. Share it all.

A weekend-warrior magician and sociologist named Robert K. Merton pioneered an idea of an epistemic community around the norm of CUDOS. Communism (data belongs to the group),Universalism (apply uniform standards to claims and evidence, regardless of where they come from),Disinterestedness (vigilance against potential conflicts that can influence the group’s evaluation), andOrganized Skepticism (discussion among the group to encourage engagement and dissent).(Reprinted from “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts” by Annie Duke (c) 2018 by Anny Duke, p. 154)I believe that one of the biggest threats to our world, especially the corporate world, is the lack of dissent, skepticism, or a willingness to challenge belief. I’d love to build a tribe, I think I just might, of people who want to help others make better decisions. Here’s how it might look, using the above CUDOS model.Tribal leadership is to bring people together and maintain the rules. An individual presents a recent decision they made, what led to it, what facts they considered when making the decision, and would avoid sharing the results (more on this later) - this data now belongs to the group.Group members proceed to question - “What drove you to consider this fact and not another?” “What would you do differently?” “It appears your bias got the better part of you in this part, would you agree? Why or why not?” Members approach their thoughts from a “facts-only” point-of-view; they do not allow bias to enter the conversation. Each individual, set of facts seen or unseen, and all decisions receive equal, unbiased, impartial, and fair treatment. The goal is to learn from the decision-making processes of others. Also, the presenter learns from the thoughts of the questioners; a win-win! I may create a group like that. If you’re interested, let me know. There’s a possibility it could fail, but there’s also a possibility it could become an excellent experience. It’s a bet I might be willing to take.

In the same way that one goes to the gym with a buddy, create a small tribe of people to support better decision-making. Find two or four other people. Agree to connect on a semi-regular basis. Share your wins, losses, and the decisions you took. Allow your friends to question your choices, offer alternatives, and push your critical thinking to the max. Besides improving your ability to be vulnerable, you’ll see improvements with your ability to accept feedback, offer feedback, and make better decisions. Learning is better together.

When we look at the world around us, our decisions, the acts of others, and associated outcomes, we will often see them as “right” or “wrong.” Perhaps not quite absolute, but maybe? Ever watched another musician and thought, “I wouldn’t do it that way,” or, “s/he made an ‘interesting’ choice?” It’s almost as if we watch others through our lense, and our lense is always “right.” We are all entitled to opinions. Not everything we see, hear, or taste will align with our beliefs or those sets of rules that govern our world view. However, when it comes to learning from others, these beliefs can get in the way. I love watching other piano players. I can find a million things I’d like to lift from someone’s solo/style for my music. However, I have sometimes found myself making “judgmental” statements, as I above illustrated. When I make those statements, even in my head, learning stops. Learning stops because I’ve started seeing someone’s work not for what it is, but for what I think it should be. Instead of being the proverbial sponge, I am “judge and jury.” Be a sponge. Watch to learn. Suspend judgment. Absorb all you can from another.Apply your learnings to your life.Come alive.

No one likes to lose - humans are fiercely competitive. We’re wired that way - survival of the fittest.  We want to do our best work, be recognized for our efforts, feel that people care about us, receive rewards for our efforts - we want to win. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to win. However, it’s not helpful to avoid acknowledging that the “drive to achieve” exists.  Below are examples of statements I’ve heard from musicians describing their ideas of success.“I want to be the best session bassist in the world.““I want to be the first-call player for film scores.““I want to be the best vocalist with the cruise line.““I am the best soloist with the cruise line.”  “How do I get to be the best DJ?”  No one ever says, “How do I become the best finder-of-mistakes-in-good-outcomes?”  **“How do I become a better learner?” **“How do I become the best at catching learning opportunities without blaming myself or others?” **“How can I, in spite of my wins, always find a way to do things better?” **Acknowledge and leverage your primal desire to win and discover how to become the best learner possible. Focus on expanding your mind so that every experience - win or lose - is a learning occasion. ** These questions were inspired by Annie Duke from her book, Thinking in Bets.

We left off with palms sweating, quick breathing, and my brain double-checking every last aspect of the individual I meant to show against the job requirements - perfect alignment. I presented the candidate. Friends, the frustration that comes from not achieving victory from a seemingly unwinnable beast is sizable. The hiring manager did not like the candidate! How? Why? What happened?! It is a fact that the candidate I put forward objective met every single test required. It is also a fact that I had a reliable process for determining whether or not the candidate would be a good fit. Lastly, it is a fact that bad luck heavily influenced my outcome. The hiring manager came to my meeting from an argument. Their low mood state, which I could not control, led them to see the world in the negative. Nothing was going to make this individual satisfied; none of my efforts mattered, and the fact that I found the person we needed was beside the point. The hiring manager’s mood was outside of my control - bad luck. I had a reasonable chance of receiving approval to make an offer - perhaps a 90% chance. On that day, I ended up winning the 10% I didn’t want. Yes, I could have taken steps to recover the meeting, I know. However, this entry is about luck - when factors outside of your control influence your outcome. In this instance, a negative influence. In spite of the bad luck, we can still find a silver lining. While “luck” heavily influenced the outcome, I know now that I could offer to schedule another meeting at a different time, or maybe change topics to something not related to my candidate, or listen to the hiring manager vent.While bad or good luck may influence your outcomes, never pass up the opportunity to learn and grow. Doing so enables you to come alive.

I’ve had moments where I’ve found the perfect candidate for an impossibly hard-to-fill position. There’s an excitement that comes over a recruiter - like a dopamine rush.  I am quite sure it’s the inner desire to win the seemingly unwinnable that amps me up. Or maybe it’s the anticipated relief of being able to focus on something else?  I would have welcomed an opportunity to work on another position. This particular role required several skills that one does not find in a single individual. Highly technical, artistic, creative, and flexible - this position needed someone that could flawlessly execute four different skills, and each skill requiring the equivalent education of a college degree. We needed this individual for the launch of a new program. The hiring manager hoped this new program would answer an outspoken customer need. To find this individual was to find the diamond in the rough. I found one!I can recall the anxiety leading up to the moment when I would present the musician to the hiring manager. Palms sweating, quick breathing, and my brain double-checking every last aspect of the individual I meant to show against the job requirements - perfect alignment.  Then the moment of presentation.- Continued tomorrow.